Pretty good week from my perspective

[BC-NanceLee]

Stocks closed today at the highest levels in more than a year.

Announced this week:

Bigger-than-expected drop in jobless claims in September.

Retail sales up for the first time since July 2008.

Deficit reported to have narrowed in August.

Improvement in the trade gap - exports up, imports down,

Dollar up too.

Oh yea - and a Nobel Peace Prize.

[sheryl]

Yes. All of it... Baby steps upward...

[Maki]

I'll add to this NL...
I just got statements in the mail for my boy's college funds...they are inching back up, as well as my former 401K rolled over to an IRA account. I went through a period of time where I just didn't even open the envelope!

[Adrienne]

Our college fund is climbing back up and is looking encouraging.

The only foreclosed home on our street was rehab'ed and purchased.

Nephew found a job

[BC-Tracik]

yup our 401K statement was up as well. There is an article today that Northern California's exports are way up, the three houses on our street all sold (from 899k to 1.5 mil), and I just read in the paper that 30 yr fixed mortgages are back down below 5%.

All in all babysteps of improvement.... sure there are going to be steps back along the way but it is good to feel like the sense of forboding is lifting.

[BC-tinatinva]

Or maybe not so much..


Looks like the FHA is on the verge of a bust... hmm, another gov't agency possibly needing us to bail them out..
US-mortgage-backer-may-need-bailout: Personal Finance News from Yahoo! Finance

[Pearls]

My state just announced a 10% spending cut across the boards this week. I do not see this as a good week at all. I was just in to talk to the principal about some committees I'm on, and he is forecasting more cuts that affect education. While some might see blips up here and there in their own little microcosm, there is still a long way to go. Not everyone can afford food, let alone a million dollar house. Job losses exceeded forecasts for September. That's sad. Yes, my 401 is climbing but a lot of people are depleting their's still just to keep their head above water.

*Sigh* I want to see improvements, I really do. I want to see that rainbow too, but being realistic is needed to because it makes us strive to find a way out of this.

U.S. Economy: September Job Losses Exceed Forecast (Update3) - Bloomberg.com

Oct. 2 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. job losses accelerated last month and the unemployment rate climbed to the highest level since 1983, stark reminders of how the worst financial crisis in more than seven decades may undermine consumer spending and economic growth in the months ahead.

Hours after today’s Labor Department report, President Barack Obama said he’s working to “explore any and all additional measures” to spur growth. The figures also underscore forecasts for the Federal Reserve to keep its benchmark interest rate near zero through next year. Stocks fell and the dollar weakened against the euro.

“You will see the economy pulling back,” Richard Yamarone, head of economic research at Argus Research Corp. in New York and most accurate forecaster surveyed for the payrolls loss, said in a Bloomberg Television interview. Payrolls may not return to their previous peak for years to come, he added.

Payrolls dropped by 263,000 in September, exceeding the median forecast in Bloomberg’s survey, with losses extending from cash-strapped state and local governments to retailers to builders, today’s report showed. The jobless rate rose to 9.8 percent from 9.7 percent in August, while working hours matched a record low.

The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index fell 0.5 percent to 1,025.21 at 4:05 p.m. in New York after dropping as much as 1 percent. Ten-year Treasury yields rose to 3.22 percent from 3.18 percent late yesterday, and the dollar weakened to $1.4578 per euro from $1.4545.

Factory Orders

A Commerce Department report today showed that orders placed with factories fell unexpectedly in August, restrained by long-lasting items such as commercial aircraft and construction machinery. Bookings fell 0.8 percent after a revised 1.4 percent increase in July that was larger than previously estimated. Excluding transportation equipment, orders rose 0.4 percent.

Obama called today’s report a “sobering reminder that progress comes in fits and starts” in remarks at the White House after returning from Copenhagen, where he made an unsuccessful bid for Chicago to host the 2016 Olympic Games.

Fed Chairman Ben S. Bernanke yesterday said economic growth may not be strong enough to “substantially” bring down unemployment, indicating the central bank will be slow to drain the trillions of dollars it’s pumped into the economy. UAL Corp. is among companies cutting jobs on concern spending will fade as government stimulus wanes.

‘Uglier Numbers’

“I certainly don’t think we can afford to withdraw the stimulus, without it we’d probably be looking at uglier numbers,” Chris Low, chief economist at FTN Financial in New York, said in a Bloomberg Television interview. “What we are looking at is the lack of small-business job creation that typically marks the beginning of an economic recovery.”

September’s losses bring total jobs lost since the recession began in December 2007 to 7.2 million, the biggest decline since the Great Depression.

Payrolls were expected to drop 175,000, the median of 84 estimates in a Bloomberg News survey of economists. Forecasts ranged from decreases of 260,000 to 100,000. Job losses peaked at 741,000 in January, the most since 1949. The September unemployment rate matched the median projection.

Revisions subtracted 13,000 from payroll figures previously reported for August and July.

Annual Revisions

The Labor Department today also published its preliminary estimate for the annual benchmark revisions to payrolls that will be issued in February. They showed the economy may have lost an additional 824,000 jobs in the 12 months ended March 2009. The data currently show a 4.8 million drop in employment during that time.

The projected decrease was three times larger than the historical average, the Labor Department said. Most of the drop occurred in the first quarter of this year, probably due to an increase in business closings, the government said.

Automatic Data Processing Inc. Chief Executive Officer Gary Butler, who has spent more than three decades at the U.S. payroll processor, said the economy will probably recover at a slower pace than in previous rebounds. In an interview in New York, Butler said he hasn’t yet seen evidence that the government’s stimulus spending is adding jobs.

Factory Jobs

Today’s report showed factory payrolls fell 51,000 after decreasing 66,000 in the prior month. Economists forecast a drop of 52,000. The decline included a drop of 3,500 jobs in auto manufacturing and parts industries.

General Motors Co. this week said it would close the Saturn brand after Penske Automotive Group Inc. broke off discussions to buy the unit. Saturn dealers will have until October 2010 to wind down operations. The Detroit-based automaker said in June a Saturn sale would have saved 13,000 jobs and 350 dealerships.

GM had called back some workers after the government’s “cash-for-clunkers” plan cut further into inventories already diminished during the bankruptcy shutdown.

Sales of cars and light trucks plunged last month after the $3 billion incentive plan expired in late August. Vehicles sold at a 9.2 million annual pace in September, down from a 14.1 million annual pace in August.

Builders, Banks

Payrolls at builders dropped 64,000 after decreasing 60,000. Financial firms decreased payrolls by 10,000, after a 25,000 decline the prior month.

Service industries, which include banks, insurance companies, restaurants and retailers, subtracted 147,000 workers after falling 69,000. Retail payrolls decreased by 38,500 after a 8,800 drop.

Government payrolls decreased by 53,000 after falling 19,000 the prior month.

Economists surveyed by Bloomberg last month projected the jobless rate will reach 10 percent by late 2009 and average 9.7 percent for all of next year even as the economy expands at an average 2.6 percent pace in the second half of this year and 2.4 percent in 2010.

Fed chief Bernanke told lawmakers in Washington yesterday that he anticipated the jobless rate will hold above 9 percent though 2010.

While acknowledging that “economic activity has picked up,” Fed policy makers on Sept. 23 said household spending “remains constrained by ongoing job losses, sluggish income growth, lower housing wealth, and tight credit.”

Rosengren Comments

Fed Bank of Boston President Eric Rosengren said the central bank and government should maintain policies to support economic growth and bring down unemployment until a self- sustaining recovery is assured.

“I’d like policy to try to stimulate the labor markets as much as possible,” Rosengren said in response to questions following a speech in Boston today. “But the reality is even with stimulated labor markets, we’re likely to see elevated unemployment for the next couple of years.”

Today’s report also showed companies cut working hours, pushing weekly earnings lower.

The average work week shrank to 33 hours in September, matching a record low, from 33.1 in the prior month. Average weekly hours worked by production workers dipped to 39.8 from 39.9, while overtime decreased to 2.8 hours from 2.9. That brought the average weekly earnings to $616.11 from $617.65.

Workers’ average hourly wages rose 1 cent, or 0.1 percent, to $18.67 from the prior month. Hourly earnings were 2.5 percent higher than September 2008, the smallest gain since 2005. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg had forecast a 0.2 percent increase from the prior month and a 2.6 percent gain for the 12-month period.

Airlines are also cutting staff. UAL’s United Airlines, the third-biggest U.S. carrier, last month furloughed 290 more pilots under a plan to trim jobs and limit labor costs, while American Airlines said it would furlough 228 flight attendants.

To contact the reporter on this story: Bob Willis in Washington at bwillis@bloomberg.net

Last Updated: October 2, 2009 16:24 EDT

[Maddy00]

Yes it's all in how you spin it and I'm simply not going to pretend it's all getting better. Pearl's article is certainly more accurate and if you look around at all you can see that info.

[rae]

I still see a really ugly economic picture around my area. Store after store continues to close in the big mall and the strip malls around it. Houses in my neighborhood continue to sit on the market, and while the market has picked up some, it's still very slow. New consruction has picked up a little, but considering it's been non-existent for 1.5 years, it's still slow. Nobody is hiring, and for many I know, their unemployment pay has long since run out.

I always turn to Political Math to try to understand the big picture with regards to numbers, and even they paint a scary outlook for unemployment. We lost 785,000 jobs last month:

What The September Unemployment Rate Tells Us (Or, How I Learned To Start Worrying and Hate the BLS Data) Political Math

(First 4 paragraphs below, but use the link for the complete analysis and graphs.)

What The September Unemployment Rate Tells Us (Or, How I Learned To Start Worrying and Hate the BLS Data)

October 5, 2009

Latest unemployment data has come out and the people who were claiming “ah, but job losses are slowing” were smacked down and sent to the corner to think about what they’ve done.

The unemployment rate was up .1%, from 9.7% to 9.8%. That’s not so bad, right?

To speak frankly, the unemployment rate tells so little of the story at this point that its hardly a useful metric. If you’re looking for a useful metric, start looking at the raw unemployment numbers.

The problem with the unemployment rate is that it doesn’t compare the employed with the unemployed. Instead, it compares people who are employed with those who don’t have jobs, but have looked for a job in the last 4 weeks”. This make a certain kind of sense; we don’t want to count stay-at-home dads or retired individuals as unemployed.

-----------------

Another good read on cnbc's site:
Save the Greenback, Mr. President - Money and Politics Blog - CNBC.com

(First 4 paragraphs below, the rest through the above link.)

Save the Greenback, Mr. President

We know that gold is soaring.

And we know the dollar is slumping. But, did you know that year-to-date, while the S&P 500 is up 18 percent—a great showing no doubt—gold is up even more.

The precious metal is up 21 percent. In other words, measured in true, gold-backed purchasing power, stocks have really done nothing this year. Zip. It is most disappointing.

I try to be optimistic about better earnings, a stock market rally and economic recovery. And I’m sticking to my guns. But what we’re seeing right now is pretty darn close to what we witnessed in the 1970s—the rise in gold and inflation really cuts into the stock market.

[Briar]

Originally Posted by BC-NanceLee

Oh yea - and a Nobel Peace Prize.

Nuff said