and THIS is why Rasmussen sucks

Lesley · 09-03-2009, 09:36 AM

just another example of why they are so off in left field they are unreliable at best.
Date Sample Approve disapprove spread
RCP Average 8/20 - 9/1 -- 52.8 41.7 +11.1
Gallup 8/30 - 9/1 1547 54 40 +14
Rasmussen Reports 8/30 - 9/1 1500 46 53 -7
CNN/Opinion Research 8/28 - 8/31 1010 53 45 +8
Ipsos-McClatchy 8/27 - 8/31 903 56 40 +16
CBS News 8/27 - 8/31 1097 56 35 +21
Pew Research 8/20 - 8/27 2003 52 37 +15

**BC-NanceLee** · 09-03-2009, 09:40 AM

You mean, off in far RIGHT field

Lesley · 09-03-2009, 09:43 AM

I was going to add this link for historical data comparing several polslters over and extended peeiod of time. It's doesn't take a brillinat mind to see the trend for how Rasmussen portrays the 'will of the public'. http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epo...044.html#polls

Would have been easier for me to save the chart and just repost here....but that is a no-go.

rae · 09-03-2009, 11:30 AM

Shooting the messenger because you don't like the message seems a tad extreme.

You provided the links, so I'm sure you are familiar with them. I'm sure you have seen that of all the recent polls, Rasmussen was the only one who polled likely voters. Most of the pollsters only polled adults. Surely you can see that those numbers could easily account for two very different outcomes.

It wasn't very long ago that on this bb, results of a university study were posted showing that Rasmussen polled closest to the recent Presidential elections. They were most accurate in the last election. Again, many of the other pollsters were not polling likely voters. Most pollsters poll adults. Some pollsters poll registered voters. Very few poll likely voters. More pollsters will put forth the effort to poll likely voters closer to the elections. At that point, I'd expect to be able to extrapolate more data from comparisons. Right now, you've got apples and oranges.

Pearls · 09-03-2009, 11:46 AM

Yep to Rae.

Here's a blip from the 2008 election pollster study. Shows Rasmussen leading. I'm really surprised Gallup was as low as they were.

http://www.fordham.edu/images/academ...20election.pdf

1. Rasmussen (11/1-3)**
1. Pew (10/29-11/1)**
2. YouGov/Polimetrix (10/18-11/1)
3. Harris Interactive (10/20-27)
4. GWU (Lake/Tarrance) (11/2-3)*
5. Diageo/Hotline (10/31-11/2)*
5. ARG (10/25-27)*
6. CNN (10/30-11/1)
6. Ipsos/McClatchy (10/30-11/1)
7. DailyKos.com (D)/Research 2000 (11/1-3)
8. AP/Yahoo/KN (10/17-27)
9. Democracy Corps (D) (10/30-11/2)
10. FOX (11/1-2)
11. Economist/YouGov (10/25-27)
12. IBD/TIPP (11/1-3)
13. NBC/WSJ (11/1-2)
14. ABC/Post (10/30-11/2)
15. Marist College (11/3)
16. CBS (10/31-11/2)
17. Gallup (10/31-11/2)
18. Reuters/ C-SPAN/ Zogby (10/31-11/3)
19. CBS/Times (10/25-29)
20. Newsweek (10/22-23)

robine · 09-03-2009, 07:06 PM

you think they suck because BO is TANKING...

I think rassy is one of the few to actually poll ALL kinds of peeps and not just lefties..

I get that Rassy is not your cup of tea...of course, he was just "the thing" in late Oct 08 when BO was winning

:BIGFATWINK:

robine · 09-03-2009, 07:08 PM

and another "in your face" thread dismantled...good work ladies...

09-03-2009, 09:36 AM	#1 (permalink)
Lesley 5000-9999 post king of hearts Join Date: Jan 2002 Posts: 7,244	and THIS is why Rasmussen sucks just another example of why they are so off in left field they are unreliable at best. Date Sample Approve disapprove spread RCP Average 8/20 - 9/1 -- 52.8 41.7 +11.1 Gallup 8/30 - 9/1 1547 54 40 +14 Rasmussen Reports 8/30 - 9/1 1500 46 53 -7 CNN/Opinion Research 8/28 - 8/31 1010 53 45 +8 Ipsos-McClatchy 8/27 - 8/31 903 56 40 +16 CBS News 8/27 - 8/31 1097 56 35 +21 Pew Research 8/20 - 8/27 2003 52 37 +15 __________________ Lesley. "A Conservative Government is an organized hypocrisy." Benjamin Disraeli

09-03-2009, 09:40 AM	#2 (permalink)
BC-NanceLee 10000-15000 post ace of hearts Join Date: Dec 2002 Location: Minneapolis Posts: 29,906 Blog Entries: 120	You mean, off in far RIGHT field __________________ Me 51, DH 31, Max 19, Cole 14 The only choice in life is love vs. fear. I choose love. ALWAYS. Change is inevitable, growth is intentional. - Unknown

09-03-2009, 09:43 AM	#3 (permalink)
Lesley 5000-9999 post king of hearts Join Date: Jan 2002 Posts: 7,244	I was going to add this link for historical data comparing several polslters over and extended peeiod of time. It's doesn't take a brillinat mind to see the trend for how Rasmussen portrays the 'will of the public'. http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epo...044.html#polls Would have been easier for me to save the chart and just repost here....but that is a no-go. __________________ Lesley. "A Conservative Government is an organized hypocrisy." Benjamin Disraeli

09-03-2009, 11:30 AM	#4 (permalink)
rae 10000-15000 post ace of hearts Join Date: Jan 2002 Location: You can take the girl out of TEXAS... Posts: 13,229	Shooting the messenger because you don't like the message seems a tad extreme. You provided the links, so I'm sure you are familiar with them. I'm sure you have seen that of all the recent polls, Rasmussen was the only one who polled likely voters. Most of the pollsters only polled adults. Surely you can see that those numbers could easily account for two very different outcomes. It wasn't very long ago that on this bb, results of a university study were posted showing that Rasmussen polled closest to the recent Presidential elections. They were most accurate in the last election. Again, many of the other pollsters were not polling likely voters. Most pollsters poll adults. Some pollsters poll registered voters. Very few poll likely voters. More pollsters will put forth the effort to poll likely voters closer to the elections. At that point, I'd expect to be able to extrapolate more data from comparisons. Right now, you've got apples and oranges. __________________ I happen to be a proponent of single-payer, universal health care coverage. (2003) But, I don’t think we are going to be able to eliminate employer coverage immediately. There’s going to be potentially some transition process. I can envision a decade out or 15 years out or 20 years out where we’ve got a much more portable system. (2007) Barack Obama

09-03-2009, 07:06 PM	#6 (permalink)
robine 10000-15000 post ace of hearts Join Date: Oct 2002 Location: At the Tavern Posts: 19,570 Blog Entries: 1787	you think they suck because BO is TANKING... I think rassy is one of the few to actually poll ALL kinds of peeps and not just lefties.. I get that Rassy is not your cup of tea...of course, he was just "the thing" in late Oct 08 when BO was winning :BIGFATWINK: __________________ Dictator, Dictator, There’s one little catch: We value our freedom That you want to dispatch. Dictator, Dictator, This could be you… Just Google the late Nicolae Ceaucescu.


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09-03-2009, 11:46 AM	#5 (permalink)
Pearls 1000-4999 post queen of hearts Join Date: Feb 2007 Posts: 1,593	Yep to Rae. Here's a blip from the 2008 election pollster study. Shows Rasmussen leading. I'm really surprised Gallup was as low as they were. http://www.fordham.edu/images/academ...20election.pdf 1. Rasmussen (11/1-3) 1. Pew (10/29-11/1) 2. YouGov/Polimetrix (10/18-11/1) 3. Harris Interactive (10/20-27) 4. GWU (Lake/Tarrance) (11/2-3)* 5. Diageo/Hotline (10/31-11/2)* 5. ARG (10/25-27)* 6. CNN (10/30-11/1) 6. Ipsos/McClatchy (10/30-11/1) 7. DailyKos.com (D)/Research 2000 (11/1-3) 8. AP/Yahoo/KN (10/17-27) 9. Democracy Corps (D) (10/30-11/2) 10. FOX (11/1-2) 11. Economist/YouGov (10/25-27) 12. IBD/TIPP (11/1-3) 13. NBC/WSJ (11/1-2) 14. ABC/Post (10/30-11/2) 15. Marist College (11/3) 16. CBS (10/31-11/2) 17. Gallup (10/31-11/2) 18. Reuters/ C-SPAN/ Zogby (10/31-11/3) 19. CBS/Times (10/25-29) 20. Newsweek (10/22-23)

09-03-2009, 07:08 PM	#7 (permalink)
robine 10000-15000 post ace of hearts Join Date: Oct 2002 Location: At the Tavern Posts: 19,570 Blog Entries: 1787	and another "in your face" thread dismantled...good work ladies... __________________ Dictator, Dictator, There’s one little catch: We value our freedom That you want to dispatch. Dictator, Dictator, This could be you… Just Google the late Nicolae Ceaucescu.

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