Let's talk about Iran

[AngelaM]

I saw this article today:

Originally Posted by Fox News

Iran Threatens to End InspectionsFriday, January 13, 2006

TEHRAN, Iran —Iran threatened on Friday to block inspections of its nuclear sites if confronted by the U.N. Security Council over its atomic activities. The hard-line president reaffirmed his country's intention to produce nuclear energy.

The move came a day after France, Britain and Germany — backed by the United States — said that nuclear talks with Iran had reached a dead end after more than two years of acrimonious negotiations and the issue should be referred to the Security Council.

With the support of Russia and China uncertain, however, they refrained from calling on the 15-nation council to impose sanctions and said they remained open to more talks.

Iran said Friday that if it were confronted by the Security Council, it would have to stop cooperating with the U.N. nuclear watchdog, the International Atomic Energy Agency.

That would be, among other things, the end of random inspections, said Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki.

"In case Iran is referred to the U.N. Security Council ..., the government will be obliged to end all of its voluntary cooperation," the television quoted Mottaki as saying.

Iran has been voluntarily allowing short-notice IAEA inspections since 2003.

President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad dismissed talk of possible sanctions and said Iran will "continue the path of production of the nuclear energy."

"Iranian people do not allow foreigners to block their progress," state-run radio quoted him as saying.

Last year Iran adopted a law requiring the government to block intrusive inspections of Iran's facilities if the IAEA refers the Iranian program to the council.

The law also requires the Iranian government to resume all nuclear activities that it had stopped voluntarily, foremost among them enriching uranium.

On Tuesday, Iran removed some U.N. seals in the presence of IAEA inspectors from its main uranium enrichment facility in Natanz, central Iran, and resumed research on nuclear fuel.

Iran said it was resuming "merely research" and that "production of nuclear fuel" — which would involve enrichment — "remains suspended." But the IAEA said Tehran also planned small-scale enrichment of uranium, a process that can produce fuel for nuclear reactors to generate electricity or material for nuclear weapons.

"I recommend to European countries that they should separate the issue of research from production of nuclear fuel and not make propaganda over research which is natural and normal but had unjustly been subject to suspension in the past," Mottaki was quoted as saying.

Mottaki said Iran was prepared for talks with Europeans over uranium enrichment.

"If they have any discussion in the stage of nuclear fuel production, we are prepared to continue our talks with the three European countries," he said.

Mottaki, however, insisted that Iran won't give up its right under the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty to possess the whole nuclear fuel cycle — from extracting uranium ore to enriching it.

"No one can take this right from the Iranian nation. Regaining this right doesn't require permission from any country," the television quoted him as saying.

I'm curious as to how everyone here thinks the world should handle Iran?
First, does anyone here believe the UN Security Council will really act upon this?
With oil in demand, do you really think the UN Security Council will impose sanctions?
Even if they did, I think we learned previously that all that really does is harm the citizens of the country.
What should be done to Iran if they refuse inspections?

And, what does everyone think of that little troll now ruling Iran. He's got some guts hasn't he? A bit off his rocker if you ask me.

His latest rantings stating "“We don’t shy away from declaring that Islam is ready to rule the world." Mahmoud Ahmadinejad has also said that he doubted the Holocaust took place, that Israel should be wiped off of the map of the middle east and moved to Europe. Actually, if Israel had the choice, they would probably gladly accept the move.

What do you think the US will do about Iran? After all if we're not 100 percent certain they've got WMD -- which we won't be until there's a big smoking crater in New York City one day in the future-- it would be just another Bush lie to get us into another war for oil, right?

In December, The U.N. says Iran could be two months from having a nuclear weapon. Should we let them have nukes?

[CJD]

My2cents. I feel we should have skipped Iraq and taken over in Iran. The Pres. of Iran is very vocal about his nukes and wanting to use them. I wish I remembered where I heard a quote from him, but it went somthing like this" So we get bombed, they kill what maybe 2 or 3 million people? I still have 3million people left in my country." To me this shows a man with no respect for life. In his own country or others.

I think I heard the quote on KGO radio...

[Sharon]

Originally Posted by AngelaM

I saw this article today:

Mahmoud Ahmadinejad has also said that he doubted the Holocaust took place, that Israel should be wiped off of the map of the middle east and moved to Europe. Actually, if Israel had the choice, they would probably gladly accept the move.

I am sorry I don't have time right now to answer your post the way it deserves to be answered...but I had to say something about this one.

No! Israelis would not accept the move. People are pretty passionate about that bit of land. No oil, big roaches, long draughts, some seriously poisonous scorpions and snakes, swamps, not to mention political unrest and neighbors who hate you....but heck, its home.

[Caro B.]

I find the situation in Iran very worrying: President Ahmadinejad is a hardline, conservative cleric, Iran is an ancient and proud nation. The extent of Iran's nuclear programme was concealed from inspectors for 18 years and was only revealed 3 years ago by Iranian dissidents. It is a recipe for disaster.

However I really hope a diplomatic solution can still be found, and I think the Europeans and the US still hope this too. Too much is at stake otherwise:
Iran has the potential to stir up a lot of trouble in the region: it has links to Hezbollah and Islamic Jihad, which have influence inside Iraq. Iran also has many allies in the Middle East, whereas Iraq was isolated at the time of the invasion.
The whole region is like a pot waiting to boil over: as well as Iran's suspected (but highly probably existing) nuclear arms, Pakistan has nuclear weapons, India has nuclear warheads, Russia has them. Moving a little further East, China has them, North Korea has them. And then on the other side, Israel is believed to have them, Iraq is occupied by 2 nuclear powers (US & UK), and similarly, Afghanistan is occupied by the UK, the US AND France, another nuclear power.
As for sanctions, apart from the fact that, as Angela mentioned, they hurt the citizens more than anything else, Iran also has the means to retaliate effectively on the economic front, as it is a major oil producer.
I believe broad international solidarity, namely from Europe, the US and Russia, should be used to increase the diplomatic pressure. If we give up on the diplomacy, I'm scared about where that could lead us.

[AngelaM]

Originally Posted by Sharon

No! Israelis would not accept the move. People are pretty passionate about that bit of land. No oil, big roaches, long draughts, some seriously poisonous scorpions and snakes, swamps, not to mention political unrest and neighbors who hate you....but heck, its home.

I meant that in a joking manner. You gotta admit, they are surrounded by instability.

But give up their homeland...no way.

Most wars throughout history have been fought over land.

[Laurie Jane]

Must we?

Iran scares the crap out of me. Way way way way WAY more then Iraq ever did.

LJ

[Sharon]

Originally Posted by Caro B.

I find the situation in Iran very worrying: President Ahmadinejad is a hardline, conservative cleric, Iran is an ancient and proud nation. The extent of Iran's nuclear programme was concealed from inspectors for 18 years and was only revealed 3 years ago by Iranian dissidents. It is a recipe for disaster.

However I really hope a diplomatic solution can still be found, and I think the Europeans and the US still hope this too. Too much is at stake otherwise:
Iran has the potential to stir up a lot of trouble in the region: it has links to Hezbollah and Islamic Jihad, which have influence inside Iraq. Iran also has many allies in the Middle East, whereas Iraq was isolated at the time of the invasion.
The whole region is like a pot waiting to boil over: as well as Iran's suspected (but highly probably existing) nuclear arms, Pakistan has nuclear weapons, India has nuclear warheads, Russia has them. Moving a little further East, China has them, North Korea has them. And then on the other side, Israel is believed to have them, Iraq is occupied by 2 nuclear powers (US & UK), and similarly, Afghanistan is occupied by the UK, the US AND France, another nuclear power.
As for sanctions, apart from the fact that, as Angela mentioned, they hurt the citizens more than anything else, Iran also has the means to retaliate effectively on the economic front, as it is a major oil producer.
I believe broad international solidarity, namely from Europe, the US and Russia, should be used to increase the diplomatic pressure. If we give up on the diplomacy, I'm scared about where that could lead us.

OK, I had to come back. Everything you say is right but the question remains, will sanctions/diplomacy do anything when they have failed for so long?

I know you're kidding Angela about Israel up and moving all 6 million citizens, and heck who would take that many cantankerous Israelis anyway?! What is not so funny is that the Iranian position is not compromising. You quote Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, "We don’t shy away from declaring that Islam is ready to rule the world." There's the rub.

Whenever we get into Middle East debates I have to go back to the bigger cultural war. Do we not need to address the rise of fundementalist Islam as the only way of isolating Iran in the long run? Do we not have to support, encourage, down right coddle any and all movements towards moderation even if they seem to be less than moderate and democratic in our eyes?

I think creating "relative" wealth in moderate countries and thus making them appealing to Muslim citizens all over the world is going to be key to isolating Iran. Right now Iran enjoys a standing in the Islamic world that is beyond our reach. Although there was an environmental price I think the US created QIZ (Qualified Industrial Zones) in Jordan and on the Israeli Jordanina border were a right move. It created not only unskilled but management level jobs as well.

I guess I have very little faith in the UN and sanctions. As long as Iran is trading oil (and we know Russia and others will buy where they can) and fronting the most fundementalist groups, then they have two awsome weapons--money and zealotry. What sanctions can stand in the way of that?!

[AngelaM]

You know what bugs me. There are a lot of armchair quarterbacks in this country (and elsewhere I might add).

If we bring up Iraq or something else where decisions have been made. You get the masses replying about how we should've done this or shouldn't have done that. They know all of the answers.

Yet, here we are with another nation that is threatening the peace of the middle east and the world and those few who have spoken here are the only ones who have anything to comment on Iran? Wow!

I'm sure they'll come out in droves again though after decisions are made to once again say how they knew how to do it the right way and the choices made were wrong again. It's so easy then. Hindsight is 20/20 you know.

[Larry_S]

Originally Posted by Sharon

I am sorry I don't have time right now to answer your post the way it deserves to be answered...but I had to say something about this one.

No! Israelis would not accept the move. People are pretty passionate about that bit of land. No oil, big roaches, long draughts, some seriously poisonous scorpions and snakes, swamps, not to mention political unrest and neighbors who hate you....but heck, its home.

You're right. Earlier this week there was a report on C-Span about Isreal already planning and practicing airstrikes for late march against Iran. The timeing has alot to do with Russia selling a whole lot of anti-aircraft weaponry to Iran shortly after that date. As we already know Russia and France are both on the UN Security council and they freely violate sanctions they imposed to get oil i.e. chemical capable missle's from France, and Brand new MIG-25,s found in IRAQ.

[Sharon]

OK, I'll go out on a limb here but I think the Western World as a whole is unprepared and unwilling to fight the real fight. Both right and left are hanging on to shadows. The left will negotiate until they're blue in the face and the right will wait for things to deteriorate chasing petro dollars and then send in the military. Voice of America had its days and other cultural war programs but none of that was nearly enough. Why are we not inundating the web and airwaves with our message cloaked in the right messaging, symbols, language?

I am waiting for an administration that decides to be honest and say we are going to spend gobs of money (so yes it will cost the American people money one way or another) supporting Mubarak in Egypt, Abdullah in Jordan, and educational programs all over the Middle East. We will make going to US funded school worth your while so pull your kids out of the religious schools where they learn to hate at the age of 6. We will be your hero. Because twenty, thirty, years down the line that will stop a nuclear war. An administration that partners with European nations and says let's develop integration programs so radical islam can not flourish in our countries. Let's not wait for France to address the problem.

And don't forget domestic support for moderate Islamic institutions. And there are many. The US can offer educational programs in democracy and cicl engagement to muslim mosques and schools. In my very own little town, here on the San Francisco Bay, we have a Muslim community livjng with us but apart. The women are heavily veiled and men are hardly seen at all. Scary. I worked with the multicultural center and when I suggested we reach out to the mosque they just stared at me.

All that little rant was to say is that I am terrified of what is coming. Its not just the big war. Its the very disintegration of western liberal values (that other meaning of liberal, not Dem/Rep liberal). And Iran is a big part of all that as they serve as a beacon for Radical Islam. And as I have mentioned before---don't turn your attention away from Pakistan.